The NL West is a division on the precipice of change, as two squads full of aging stars must eventually give way to those who’ve been stockpiling prospects. Like MJ’s bulls, it’s gotta end sometime--but this probably isn’t the year.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (2019: 15-6, 1st, NL Champion)
In last season’s playoffs, the reigning NL champions edged out Philly in the first round, beat Miami handily for the NL title, and lost by 32 points over a two-week World Series. They’re the real deal.
This talented squad is headlined by Manny Machado, JD Martinez, Tim Anderson and Justin Upton, but it’s also starting to get creaky. Cruz, Cano, Encarnacion, and Gardner are...real old. In fact, I was surprised to do the math and learn that the Dodgers’ lineup is even older than Arizona’s, with an average age of 33.22. Still, the core talent remains in its prime and should provide enough oomph even if a few older guys start to show their age. Beyond the big boppers, LA has a strong catching duo with Sal Perez and Travis D’Arnaud, and Harrison Bader does bring some fresh blood...but let’s be honest, he doesn’t offer a fantasy-friendly skillset.
LA’s rotation is getting up in years as well, but Justin Verlander shows no signs of slowing down. Johnny Cueto is a big question mark after an uneven return from Tommy John late last season, but the extended offseason is the best thing that could have happened to him (pitching for the Giants, unfortunately, is the worst). Lopez, Yamamoto, and Velazquez are all solid innings-eaters with at least some potential for more. Liam Henricks leads a good bullpen.
There are reasons to doubt LA. Counting on five key players over the age of 36? That’s a high wire act that could easily come crashing down. The farm system has some prospects with upside, but nobody that represents either immediate help or a future core contributor. And while they won the division last year, it was the weakest division in LOEGM as three teams finished below .250.
That said, they return not only wearing the division crown, but flying the league championship banner, and came within a couple good pitching outings of the league title. There’s a reason they made it as far as they did, and until they’re dethroned the Dodgers deserve respect. The rest of the division is catching up, but never represented a serious threat last season. Look for the Dodgers to repeat as division champs.
2. Arizona Diamondbacks (2019: 13-8, 2nd)
Oh, to have owned this roster in 2014…
The average age of Arizona’s starting lineup is 32.44, with only two hitters under 30 and five 33 or older. The D-backs’ top four starters boast an average age of 34. Don’t get me wrong, most of these guys have something left in the tank...but for how long?
Albert Pujols is hanging on for dear life (and sadly, this shortened season probably ended his quest for 700 HRs). Votto is headed down the same path. And while Justin Turner is still producing at an elite level, all those injuries have to catch up to him eventually. At age 30, it’s become evident that Jason Heyward is never going to live up to the ceiling his first few years suggested (though, as a Cubs fan, his speaking ability was still worth every penny of that $184m contract).
The pitching staff (Greinke, Lester, Morton, and Ray) is still performing at an elite level, and if enough hitters get hot they might be able to carry the team through a shortened season. In fact, the pandemic may have been the best thing to happen to Arizona, as the aging vets will certainly benefit from the extra rest and have fewer chances to get hurt. But it doesn’t help that Denver also owns the first two players to opt out of the 2020 season (Mike Leake and Joe Ross).
There are bright spots beyond the elite pitching. Carson Kelly has established himself as a useful catcher, and Brandon Nimmo has shown promise despite health issues. Kole Calhoun emerged from an extended Chris-Davis-level slump to produce last season. But the clock is definitely ticking on this roster.
Will they pull off a division title before they break down or get sold off? This is probably their last shot before a deep and painful rebuild, as the farm system doesn’t offer any impact talent on the horizon. My guess is they come up a bit short again, but a division title is certainly within the range of possibilities.
3. Colorado Rockies (2019: 4-17, 4th)
The Rockies are under new ownership after seeming to lack direction at times last year, variously trading for prospects and flipping them for MLB talent. New GM Luis has already reshaped the roster and it definitely has potential in a crazy season (and beyond).
Harper leads a lineup supported by Rizzo and three solid bats at the hot corner (Seager, Andujar, and Franco). Of course, with only one UTIL spot, that means one of them will have to ride the bench every day. Wil Myers is a perennially frustrating fantasy asset...what’ll it be this season? Oscar Mercado shows promise, but a move to the lower half of the order may strip some value. A solid bench of role players with multi-position eligibility could be a key asset in an unpredictable season. Keibert Ruiz and Jeter Downs probably won’t make the bigs this year, but they add talent to the pipeline.
There’s lots to like on the other side of the ball, but also some questions to be answered: Will Folty recapture whatever he had in 2018? Will Maeda and James thrive in full-time starting roles? Can Musgrove take the next step? Can Lance McCullers pick up where he left off? These pitchers clearly have the talent, and if they can all pull it together at the same time, this team could leap up the points standings. Brusdar Graterol also has the talent to contribute, though he may not get the opportunity yet. The bullpen is shaky with Corey Knebel making his way back from Tommy John surgery and Seranthony Dominguez headed for the operating table (which, in retrospect, obviously should have happened when UCL issues popped up last year. I mean seriously, how often do pitchers NOT end up having TJ after that news?)
All told, while I give the benefit of the doubt to last year’s 1-2 finishers, there’s definitely a possibility the Rockies take home the NL West title in 2020. A couple key injuries (or infections) to the frontrunners, or just a few old guys running out of gas, is all it would take for Colorado to be very much in the picture. Don’t count them out.
4. San Francisco Giants (2019: 5-16, 3rd)
With a major league lineup that starts with Keston Hiura and ends with...*checks notes* uh, Keston Hiura? Yeah, the Giants probably aren’t a contender this year. But wow, that prospect power!
Petra sacrificed the 2019 season at the altar of the prospect gods, and boy does it show. While they won’t be fielding a full major league lineup, the Giants’ farm system reads like a Futures Game roster: Andrew Vaughn, Joey Bart, Drew Waters, Royce Lewis, Brennan Davis, JJ Bleday, Erick Pena, and more. That list would be even more formidable except for a trade on the eve of Opening Day that sent half a dozen prospects and picks off to bolster the pitching staff.
That trade added all-world stud Jacob DeGrom to a staff that arrived a bit sooner than the team’s hitters, as Chris Paddack and Jesus Luzardo are primed for impact years, and Matt Manning and Josiah Gray are right behind them. Veteran Sean Manea adds more quality innings, and Kyle Freeland’s 2018 breakout makes you wonder if he can put a disastrous 2019 behind him. If so, he’ll add another weapon to an already-dangerous rotation.
It’s tempting to look at that pitching staff and think the Giants could make a run at the division, but realistically they’re probably a year or two away. Then again...it’s been done before (see: OAK, 2019), and Petra showed a willingness to pull the trigger on big deals with DeGrom. Could they arrive early? If they do, it will take a lot of work from the GM...but even if they don’t, those hitters are coming sooner or later.
5. San Diego Padres (2019: 2-19, 5th)
The San Diego Padres own two of the studliest young talents in the game in San Diego’s Fernando Tatis Jr. and consensus #1 pitching prospect Mackenzie Gore. While Tatis has already arrived and leads this lineup, Gore--and this squad as a whole--are still a year or two from impact.
Yandy Diaz, Kyle Tucker, and Will Smith all have breakout potential, and the lineup features lots of solid role players. This offense could be competitive in most LOEGM divisions. Unfortunately, a rotation consisting of Nathan Eovaldi, Kendall Graveman, and Devin Smeltzer isn’t scaring anybody. The bullpen is solid, but this pitching staff just doesn’t go deep enough to make San Diego a real threat.
That said, there’s help on the way. Gore, Rutschman, Rodriguez and Jung headline the prospects list, with lots of other potential contributors, including some (Harrison, Duplantier, Santillan) who may contribute this year. A little patience and a shrewd deal or two could flip San Diego to the top of this list in a year or two as the Dodgers and Diamondbacks shuffle off to the old folks’ home.