Almost every team in this division has holes, whether created by trades, COVID-19, or a massive rebuild process. This year’s predictions are all about who will be able to fill them--or at least avoid further setbacks.
1. St. Louis Cardinals (2019: 17-4, 1st)
The offense is loaded with Muncy, Bogaerts, Springer, and Benintendi bringing the star power. Up and comers Bryan Reynolds and Luis Arraez bring a lot of potential, and Dylan Carlson is waiting in the wings once the real-life Cardinals squeeze an extra year of service time out of him.
There are some glaring holes, to be sure. No contending fantasy team should be fielding Chris Davis as its first option, full stop. Reviewing the roster for this writeup was the first time I’d ever heard of their only catcher. And Jose Iglesias ain’t exactly tearing the cover off the ball from the utility slot after the Puig gamble failed to pay off (so far).
Of course, it’s all part of the strategy for Elijah, one of the league’s most active traders who’s not afraid to open a hole in his lineup if it means landing the guy he wants--especially if that guy happens to play in St. Louis! He operates with complete confidence that he’ll be able to fill any holes in the next trade, and so far he’s been very successful in doing so. It’s just that Opening Day of a 60-game season is a really bad time to be holding the Chris Davis Hot Potato.
So what persuaded St. Louis to start the season in such a position? Why, one of the best young pitchers in the game--Lucas Giolito, who came to town in a deal that sent Anthony Rendon packing (who came to town in a deal that sent Paul Goldschmidt packing...see what I mean?). Anyway, Giolito co-anchors a pitching staff with Jack Flaherty and Trever Bauer to form a potent Big 3. The supporting cast includes three solid relievers, an aging but still effective Dick Mountain who benefited a whole lot from the time off, and a whole lot of Cardinals in a minor display of homerism. Sadly, flamethrower Jordan Hicks has opted out for this season.
Holes or no, two-thirds of a great lineup, that trio of stud starters, and a little bit of faith in the GM’s ability to wheel and deal over the course of the season make the Cardinals favorites to repeat in 2020. Just don’t be surprised if the margin of victory is closer this time around.
2. Milwaukee Brewers (2019: 13-8, 2nd)
Christian Yelich is one of three people who can make a credible argument right now for being The Best Baseball Player on the Planet--and since the other two play in the AL East, he gives the Brew Crew a big leg up in the division. Add to that JT Realmuto, the consensus top catcher in fantasy, and it’s easy to see how Milwaukee could do some damage. Escobar and Polanco form a strong left side of the infield, and there’s lots of potential in Kevin Newman, Mike Tauchman, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Luke Voit finally ended the Greg Bird experiment last season, and if you believe the reports he’s in the “best shape of his life” thanks to his wife’s cooking.
Though the lineup is solid with potential for more, the outfield was dealt a double-barreled blow when Trey Mancini announced he’d be sitting out the season to undergo chemotherapy for colon cancer, and Nick Markakis later opted out (which also ended any realistic chance for him to reach 3000 hits).
One possible answer is Yoenis Cespedes, who returns this summer after two years on the shelf. As of this writing he’s homered in his last three games. The only problem is that those games were played May 13, 2018; July 20, 2018 (when he returned for one game as DH); and July 24, 2020. Fun fact? Very. Reassuring? Not so much.
As if the outfield woes weren’t enough, staff ace Clayton Kershaw was a last-minute scratch from Opening Day starter to IL frequent flyer. Milwaukee needs him to anchor the rotation to have a legitimate shot at postseason success, so the hope is that this will be a short term setback and he’ll return to being a generational star in short order. Of course, his recent history suggests that may not be the case.
In the meantime, the Brewers’ hopes rest on two promising 26 year old pitchers. Luke Weaver was strong in 2019, and so was Yonny Chirinos--when the Rays let him work as a traditional starter. Arrieta and Mike Montgomery are still contributors, and there’s rotation help waiting in the wings with top prospect Spencer Howard poised to make an impact this season. Promising young guns Deivi Garcia, DL Hall, and Seth Corry offer hope for the future as well. And the bullpen is anchored by easily the best reliever in fantasy baseball, Josh Hader.
Milwaukee fields a strong team this season, but it’s a thin roster. The offense almost completely lacks a bench, and without Kershaw the rotation is just too thin to compete with the Cardinals’ three big guns. If everything goes exactly right, it’s possible they could make a run. But the Brewers have already suffered all the bad luck they can handle, and one or two key injuries this season could just as easily drop them to 3rd.
3. Pittsburgh Pirates (2019: 10-11, 4th)
The Pirates can’t compete with the star power of St. Louis and Milwaukee, with Jean Segura about as close as they get. However, Yoan Moncada may enter that realm soon if he can unlock the next level. There are some other young guys with upside as well, like Barreto, Santander, and Hilliard (if the Rockies can learn to get out of their own prospects’ way). Domingo Santana will be looking to turn back the clock to 2018 in yet another new city. Sin-Shoo Choo and Mitch Moreland have something to offer, but they’re 38 and 34.
This team does have a solid prospect roster to build for the future. A pair of promising Hernandezes at catcher, Bracho, Casas, Jones, and Duran will offer a steady stream of talent over the next few years.
Pitching will be the key to the Pirates’ season. Soroka is the staff ace, and Taijuan Walker and Carlos Rodon offer big upside if they can return from TJ and reclaim their former status as rising stars. Behind them, both Richardses can eat innings even if they don’t often put up big points. But things should get even more interesting over the next couple years, as Jameson Taillon returns from his own Tommy John surgery and the prospects begin to arrive. Balazovich, Liberatore and McKenzie all have loads of talent, and Soroka is still only 22. The 2022 rotation could easily be the best in the division.
This is a decent squad, and should finish a lot closer to the teams above than those below this year. They’re also the deepest in the division, and the only one with no obvious holes. A few poorly placed injuries to the Cardinals or Brewers could make things interesting, but a lack of star power means the Pirates are likely still a year or two away from serious contention for the division.
4. Cincinnati Reds (2019: 11-10, 3rd)
“New” manager Ryan returns to LOEGM with a new squad after relinquishing the Braves last season, and has a lot of work ahead--fielding minor leaguers in the starting lineup is a pretty good sign that you won’t be competing this year.
There are some major league pieces of note. Aguilar and Shaw both have potential to reclaim some of their former shine, and Franchy and Senzel will both have opportunities to take a step forward this season. Kingery has emerged as a solid contributor. Teheran “leads” the pitching staff, but he hit the IL to start the season and Asher Wojo and Zach Godley are innings-eaters at best.
Cincinnati’s rebuild has been ongoing, as the Reds have spent months collecting picks and prospects, but it accelerated last week when they sent Javy Baez to the Mets in exchange for top 5 prospect Jo Adell, Alec Bohm, and Nolan Jones. Adell in particular gives the team future stud potential. Other prospects on a deep minor league roster include Brayan Rocchio, Jahmai Jones, Jordyn Adams, Alex Faedo, Joey Wentz, Hunter Greene, and Ethan Hankins. Relievers James Karinchak and Emmanuel Clase have shown the skills to succeed at the major league level.
If that weren’t enough, Cincinnati has amassed four(!) 2021 first round picks, as well as adding Oakland’s 2nd-4th to his own. Ten picks in the first four rounds should give the Reds a kickstart and may make this a short rebuild.
5. Chicago Cubs (2019: 8-13, 5th)
Oof.
It’s one thing to have a couple minor leaguers in the lineup, but this MLB roster looks more like swiss cheese. The team couldn’t field a full MLB lineup if it wanted to, with Brian Anderson and Nomar Mazara the only significant assets at that level. In a normal year, this team would have had a very real shot at being the first to go 0-for-the-season.
But in the minors, Julio Rodriguez and Jasson Dominguez lead a list of prospects that show up near the top of a lot of lists, and both of them have the potential to be fantasy first-round picks. Along with them, the Cubs have Ian Anderson, Dustin May, Corbin Carroll, Riley Greene, and a host of other promising prospects on both sides of the ball.
The Cubs are definitely a project squad, opting for the same path San Francisco took last season, but they have a lot of good pieces as they continue what will likely be a lengthy rebuild. With the talent already on this roster, it shouldn’t take 108 years this time.