2020 AL Central Preview - A Tight Race (and a Name Change?)

For the abbreviated 2020 MLB Season, LOEGM has opted to change the format from a Weekly H2H Points schedule to a 6 week points race in each division with an abbreviated 3 round playoff.

As we sit just days away from the first pitch of the 2020 season we wanted to do a preview of each division and give our predictions for Winners and Challengers. We already posted the ALW Review and now its time for what might just be a 4 man race depending on how things break in the AL Central!

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1. Cleveland...Spiders? (2019: 15-6, 1st)

Beyond dealing with public pushback over the racist origins of its team name, the real-life club probably doesn’t have a shot this year after shipping Kluber off to Texas for Emmanuel Clase, who was promptly suspended for 80 games. But the LOEGM squad boasts a solid lineup featuring studs Jose Ramirez, Adalberto Mondesi, Max Kepler, and Yuli Gurriel.

The team was dealt a blow with Mitch Haniger out for perhaps the entire season with a back injury (which I’d say is definitely preferable to last year’s injury!) However, the emergence of Yordan Alvarez should more than plug that hole in the outfield assuming he returns from his coronavirus infection with no ill effects. Rougned Odor is perpetually a question mark, and Cabrera and Gordon are aging, but it’s reasonable to expect decent production from them, with a chance for more. Omar Narvaez is poised for a solid season behind the dish in Milwaukee.

On the other side of the ball, Cleveland’s rotation doesn’t include any studs, but a roster of solid starters should be enough to propel the team to the division lead barring injury or illness. Dinelson Lamet is one to watch as he completes his return from Tommy John. When healthy, his strikeout rate is elite, and he stands to benefit from an emerging Padres lineup. There are lots of question marks after the top 3, though, and while Pineda could provide a late-season boost, Cleveland doesn’t have a ton of depth to deal from if reinforcements are needed during the season. Edwin Diaz is still an elite closer after a down year in 2019, and Workman and Will Smith (currently on the IL with COVID-19) are also good options.

Overall, this is a strong team, but there’s little margin for error. In a shortened season it should be enough to repeat as division champs. Good luck David!

2. Chicago White Sox (2019: 5-16, 4th)

Entering 2020 under new management, Leo inherits a White Sox team with lots of questions:

- How many more seasons does Jose Abreu have left in that bat?

- Can Corey Seager stay healthy and become the stud many thought he’d be?

- Can Austin Meadows return strong from a coronavirus infection?

- Are Gavin Lux, Eloy Jimenez, and Sandy Alcantara ready to take the step to the next level?

- Does Zach Wheeler decide to play the full season instead of opting out?

- Was Tommy LaStella’s breakout year for real?

- Can Mike Zunino have a bounce-back year after a rough 2019?

- Is there playing time for Clint Frazier in a stacked Yankees outfield?

- Will the Diamondbacks finally #freeKevinCron?

- Are Carter Kieboom and Dylan Cease ready to be impact players at the major-league level?

To be fair, these are questions a lot of teams would be happy to wrestle with, and if enough of those answers are “yes” the White Sox will be tough to beat. This is an emerging team with lots of talent, so the real question is whether they arrive this season or next.

Be honest, who thought two years ago that Wade Davis would be projected as the worst member of this bullpen? He’s certainly got the talent to do more. The starting pitching is admittedly thin after the season-long suspension of Domingo German (who is...probably not retiring at the age of 27?). If Wheeler opts out of the season, that could doom the Sox’s hopes of making a strong run in 2020. But if Wheeler, Cease, and Alcantara all perform and the bats are more hit than miss, this team could be a real threat.

This is definitely a team on the rise, as its MiLB roster includes top-tier pitching prospects Mize and Pearson and several potential impact hitters in Jonathan India, Cristian Pache, CJ Abrams, and George Valera. Even if the Sox fall short this year, watch out in 2021 and beyond.

3. Kansas City Royals (2019: 13-8, 2nd)

After a midseason takeover Wil is working to steer the team toward contention. This team’s weakness is undoubtedly pitching. In the bullpen, Ottavino is the highlight, and should turn in another strong season in the Bronx, but only two starters are projected to collect more than 100 points. Stripling has performed well in a starting role before, but you can never trust Dave Roberts when it comes to pitching roles. He may be this year’s Kenta Maeda and move to long relief later in the season. The rest of the rotation is composed of aging vets and Quad-A option Randy Dobnak, who’s currently locked in a battle with the underwhelming Homer Bailey for Minnesota’s fifth starter spot.

The bats are another story. Altuve, Semien, and Merrifield anchor a lineup full of quality role players. Jose Martinez looks like he’ll get a chance to play every day in Tampa, and his bat was never the question in his time with STL. Avi Garcia and JBJ round out a quality outfield, and Nicky Solak looks like he’ll get the at-bats in Texas to be an impact player as well. First base is admittedly a hole, with several weaker options vying for attention, but Nola should gain catcher eligibility early and, paired with McCann, gives KC a solid duo there.

It’s not so much that KC has taken a step back as that the Sox are poised to take a big step up. If everything breaks right (or the teams ahead stumble) it’s not inconceivable that they could end up in second, or even on top, but realistically the Royals’ pitching probably limits their ceiling.

4. Detroit Tigers (2019: 4-17, 5th)

The Tigers are under new management this year, and Irvin has worked to rebuild the roster with lots of new talent: Danny Duffy, JA Happ, David Price, Freddy Galvis, Yandy Diaz, Hunter Dozier, and Franmil Reyes were all acquired in trades this spring. Detroit also loves Bryan Reynolds, who he acquired from Seattle, traded back, and then picked up on waivers after the Mariners released him.

Detroit was dealt several body blows when Aristides Aquino failed to break camp with the big league team, Quintana had surgery on his thumb in early July, and David Price opted out of the season (after being a real cool dude to LA’s MiLB players).

Realistically, though, this team wasn’t likely to compete for the division this season either way. The squad is stocked with solid role players throughout, but lacks any of the top-tier talent needed to separate itself from the pack. In this unpredictable season, the Tigers could easily finish third in the division, but probably don’t have the juice to exceed that ceiling in 2020. This is still an improvement over a last place finish in 2019.

5. Minnesota Twins (2019: 7-14, 3rd)

After a 7-14 season in 2019, Joe has dealt for several younger players and is clearly in a rebuild phase. Mitch Garver and Renato Nunez are the bright spots on the offensive side of the ball after both had breakout seasons in 2019, but neither offers real star power. Jonathan Schoop has hit more than 20 home runs in each of the last four seasons, but is moving to a weaker Tigers lineup that could limit his potential to collect runs and RBI (RBIs? RsBI?)

The rotation is anchored by Matthew Boyd and Corey Kluber, but pitching quality drops off steeply after that. Unfortunately, there’s not much help waiting in the wings either, as the minor-league system offers several major-league ready role players but doesn’t boast any top prospects. Joe’s got his work cut out for him in this rebuild project.

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This write-up was completed by Bill C - MLB Commish, RedSox GM, and 2019 LOEGM MLB Champion.